Top African Economies Now Shield 95% of GDP from Climate Risk, GCA Index Finds
Rotterdam, Netherlands, Oct. 16, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- 
- Momentum for economic resilience: New GCA report shows Africa’s economies demonstrating path-breaking climate readiness, with 10 nations leading in policy and performance.
- Debt pressure mounts: Index finds that overreliance on loans—62% of adaptation finance—threatens to stall resilience progress, limiting urgent finance mobilization scale-up on adaptation.
- Key steps forward: The need to strengthen policies to attract finance, integrate adaptation into growth, unlock private capital, and accelerate efforts to climate-proof agriculture and infrastructure highlighted.
The Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) published a comprehensive stock-take on the level of resilience of African economies to climate risks, published in the new Resilient Economies Index – Africa issued today. While Africa remains the world’s most climate-vulnerable continent, the Index shows that an average of 87.1% of economic activity across the continent is already resilient to climate risks (2025-2050), underscoring a powerful, often overlooked reality: adaptation is taking root at scale.
The Index assesses 54 African countries across three pillars—Economy, Policy and Finance—to create a comprehensive picture of national and regional resilience and introduces a new metric, Gross Resilient Product (GRP), which estimates the share of GDP not exposed to climate shocks. In this first edition, the best performers have already reduced GDP exposure to roughly 5%—a GRP of about 95%—providing a concrete benchmark for what “best in class” looks like as countries seek to de-risk growth. Ten African economies have achieved the highest assessed resilience performance, classified as “pioneering,” while another ten economies across all sub-regions of the continent—including Central, East, North, West, Southern Africa, and small island states—are assessed at the entry-level “foundational” stage. The top performers include Burundi, Kenya, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Uganda in Tier 1, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania in Tier 2.
“This Index shows that Africa is leading in building resilient economies, even while standing at the frontline of the climate crisis,” said H.E. Macky Sall, Chair of the GCA Board and 4th President of Senegal. “From Nairobi to Freetown to Maputo, from Kampala to Bujumbura, governments are grounding Africa’s response to climate change in policies shaped with communities, farmers, and youth at the center. But resilience should not come at the cost of debt. Africa needs fair partnerships that unlock private investment and ensure that those who contribute least to the crisis are not left to shoulder its cost alone.”
“Resilience is Africa’s new growth story. Indeed, this Index shows that African economies investing in adaptation are already earning resilience dividends,” said Professor Patrick V. Verkooijen, President and CEO of the Global Center on Adaptation. “The top performers are cutting climate losses and proving that bold, forward-looking policies work. The next step is clear: build strong policies that attract finance, fully embed adaptation in development and partner internationally to manage debt smartly while unlocking private investment at scale. By diversifying economies, strengthening climate-resilient agriculture, climate-proofing infrastructure and optimizing trade, Africa can transform resilience into its next engine of growth.”
Across the continent, GRP tends to rise with income and diversification, a pattern visible in South Africa, Namibia and Botswana performing at pioneering/robust levels on the GRP indicator, where broader economic structures and infrastructure standards help lift overall resilience scores. Conversely, exposure rises when economies are heavily concentrated in climate-sensitive sectors: Niger’s lower GRP performance is tied to structural factors—~33.8% of GDP and ~70.6% of employment in agriculture—showing why economic structure matters for resilience outcomes.
The Index also reveals that Africa’s growing adaptation ambition is colliding with fiscal reality. The Index shows that 62 percent of adaptation finance in Africa comes in the form of debt, a burden that limits fiscal space even for top performers like Kenya. This overreliance on borrowing is creating what the report calls a “debt wall,” where rising interest obligations and limited non-debt finance crowd out the very investments needed to build resilience. As a result, even strong policy performers—such as Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana—struggle to translate adaptation plans into adequately financed action. The Index warns that without a major shift toward non-debt financing, concessional loans and influxes of private capital, Africa risks funding its resilience through mechanisms that ultimately undermine it. Closing this gap will require flexibility and innovative partnerships with multilateral institutions and private investors to restructure liabilities, expand guarantees and unlock affordable capital for climate adaptation at scale.
Vulnerability across the continent remains real and the Index is candid about the stakes. Thirty-one African economies face loss exposure at or above 10% of GDP between now and 2050 and 32 countries have more than 10% of physical assets at risk, while 44 economies grapple with one of these two critical economic risk thresholds. Countries with extensive infrastructure—such as Egypt, South Africa and Morocco—are particularly at risk showing the urgent need to climate-proof the continent’s infrastructure boom so that roads, ports, energy and housing become resilience dividends rather than liabilities. The report warns that Africa’s infrastructure, while vital for growth, could become a liability unless resilience is embedded into each stage of design, construction and financing. Building codes, procurement systems and public-private partnerships all need to integrate climate-smart standards to ensure that today’s investments do not become tomorrow’s stranded assets. Yet even against this backdrop, African economies are already overwhelmingly resilient and getting stronger.
The Resilient Economies Index - Africa also finds that countries are advancing rapidly on policy and planning, but finance is lagging far behind. Forty countries score above 50 percent on the policy pillar of the new Index, reflecting stronger national adaptation frameworks, clearer priorities and progress on inclusiveness. Governments across the continent are increasingly consulting local communities, vulnerable groups and civil society when shaping national plans, and many are embedding actions that directly target those groups. Countries such as Ethiopia, Mozambique and Uganda, which have endured repeated disasters, are leading on adaptation policy and investment—demonstrating how hard-earned experience can drive institutional learning and resilience building.
However, only fourteen countries reach the same threshold in the index’s assessment on finance as for policy—revealing a widening gap between policy ambition and implementation. The Index estimates that current mobilization levels sit roughly two-thirds to three-quarters below what is needed for countries to reach their full resilience potential. To close the gap, every African economy would need to mobilize at the pace of today’s top performer—around US$1.45 billion per year—compared with an average of US$340 million per year across the continent. Even the leading mobilizers are still undershooting needs by 30% to as much as 230%, depending on the benchmark used.
Private capital remains largely untapped, accounting for just 3.7% of adaptation finance, and only 11 countries exceed a 5% private share—well below levels seen in South and East Asia and the Pacific, where private participation reaches 37–39%.
Kenya emerges as one of the few economies with cross-pillar strength per this index assessment—economic resilience, robust policy, and comparatively stronger finance mobilization—while countries such as Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Tanzania and Uganda illustrate how repeated exposure to climate shocks has driven policy innovation and faster financial mobilization. Higher-income economies like Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, Namibia and Botswana benefit from diversification and higher GRP, but face elevated asset exposure due to denser infrastructure—making the case for resilience standards to be embedded across all new capex.
The Resilient Economies Index Africa outlines a clear agenda for accelerating climate resilience across the continent’s economies. It calls on governments to strengthen policy frameworks with country-by-country guidance contained in the Index assessment, noting that countries with the strongest adaptation policies attract greater levels of resilient finance. The report urges the integration of resilience into national development planning, ensuring that adaptation becomes a core driver of economic growth rather than a parallel effort. It emphasizes the need for all actors to support African economies to optimize the use of debt in adaptation finance and crowd-in private investment, which currently represents only a small share of total adaptation funding. To sustain long-term resilience, the report recommends diversifying economies and strengthening resilience of the agricultural sector, embedding climate resilience into Africa’s rapid infrastructure development, and reducing trade-related climate risks including by investing in domestic production of climate-sensitive goods such as food, water, and electricity production. Together, these measures form a roadmap for scaling the continent’s economic resilience.
Notes to Editors
About the Resilient Economies Index Africa
The Resilient Economies Index – Africa is the first continent-wide assessment of how African countries are exposed to, prepared for, and financing adaptation to climate risk. Drawing on more than 80 indicators and introducing the concept of Gross Resilient Product (GRP) a counterfactual GDP pathway without climate change to one reflecting expected impacts; the difference is the exposure and the remainder is the portion of national output protected by resilience. The Index translates complex data into practical insights for governments, investors, and development partners to target resources where they deliver the greatest resilience gains.
The Index evaluates 54 countries across three pillars. The Economy pillar measures GRP, the resilience of physical assets, and the structure of trade in climate-sensitive goods such as food, water, and energy. The Policy pillar reviews national adaptation plans and strategies, with a focus on inclusiveness, coordination, data systems, and accountability. The Finance pillar examines both the volume and quality of climate finance—debt sustainability and concessionality, private-sector participation, and alignment with nationally articulated needs.
Each country is placed in one of five categories—Foundational, Emerging, Consolidating, Robust, or Pioneering—with upper and lower tiers to reflect different stages of progress. This year ten economies achieved the highest Pioneering rating: Tier 1—Burundi, Kenya, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Uganda; Tier 2—Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania. Their performance shows how ambition, inclusive policy design, and pragmatic financing convert vulnerability into resilience. For example, Uganda has integrated adaptation into core budgets; Kenya has paired climate legislation with dedicated funds and delivery pathways; Mozambique has institutionalized community-based resilience and early-warning systems despite recurrent cyclones; and Ethiopia has embedded climate-smart development in long-term planning.
The Index was developed by the Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) under the leadership of Matthew McKinnon, Vice-President for External Affairs and Policy, as Project Director, and Selamawit Desta Wubet, Global Lead for Climate Diplomacy, as Project Co-Director. The project was delivered by a dedicated research team of over a dozen experts in climate economics, policy, and finance. External modeling was led by Andrea Bassi (KnowlEdge).
The Advisory Committee, chaired by Professor Jamal Saghir, Senior Advisor to the CEO and President of GCA, brought together eminent economists and policy experts from across leading global institutions—including the World Bank, UNFCCC, UNCTAD, WMO, GGGI, IIED, Alliance of Bioversity–CIAT, and the African Development Bank—ensuring the Index’s methodological rigor, policy relevance, and alignment with international adaptation and development priorities.
About the Global Center on Adaptation
The Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) is an international organization that promotes adaptation to the impacts of climate change. It works to climate-proof development by instigating policy reforms and influencing investments made by international financial institutions and the private sector. The goal is to bring climate adaptation to the forefront of the global fight against climate change and ensure that it remains prominent. Founded in 2018, GCA is the first international organization to maintain dual headquarters in both the Global North in Rotterdam and in the Global South in Nairobi – underscoring the equal partnership between regions and the conviction that climate adaptation solutions must be co-designed and co-owned. Its regional hubs in Abidjan, Dhaka and Beijing, leverage local expertise to pilot and scale context-specific approaches. Together, these centers ensure a continuous, two-way exchange of knowledge and best practices that empower communities and drive resilient and inclusive growth worldwide.
Alexandra Gee Global Center on Adaptation +447887804594 alex.gee@gca.org
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